HURRICANES

Special Features

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Pulsing gale-force winds are forecast in the Agadir area of the Meteo-France high seas forecast from 16/12 UTC to 16/21 UTC. Seas in the 8-11 ft range are possible with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 12N16W to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 05N40W to 07N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 16W and 53W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A cold front extends south of Tampa Bay, Florida to 27N85W where it transitions to a warm front that extends to the South Texas coast. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the cold front in the eastern Gulf along a pre-frontal trough in the Florida Keys, N of 24N and E of 86W. Gentle to moderate SW winds are east of the front, except fresh to localized strong SE winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate E winds are found west of the front. Seas are slight to moderate across the entire basin.

For the forecast, the warm front will continue lifting northward today and stall tonight into Fri along the northern Gulf coast. This will shift the focus of heavy rain and thunderstorms to the northern Gulf today through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into early next week as the gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

Caribbean Sea

High pressure north of the basin is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds offshore of central and eastern Honduras, as well as in the south- central Caribbean, including portions of the Gulf of Venezuela. Mainly moderate E to SE winds prevail across the remainder of the basin, except light and variable in the southwest Caribbean south of 12N. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range east of 70W, and in the 5-8 ft range west of 70W. Isolated moderate convection is noted in the southwest Caribbean south of 12N.

For the forecast, the strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will persist through Sun, reaching near gale-force speeds Fri evening into Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun evening. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next week. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across areas in the NW Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the East Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends off the Florida coast from 31N78W to the Melbourne, Florida coast with a pre-frontal trough extending across the Florida Straits to the northern Bahamas. Ahead of the front and trough, numerous strong thunderstorms are noted N of 25N and W of 68W. Fresh to strong winds are also ahead of the front. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the SW N Atlantic waters. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are there, due to the influence of this high.

In the central Atlantic, a weak cold front extends from 31N44W to the remnant trough near 25N50W. East of the front another surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 33W and 38W.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1028 mb high pressure north of the area near 46N33W dominates the waters. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail across the open waters and moderate seas, except fresh to strong N to NE winds north of 18N between the coast of Africa and 20W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will from 31N68W to 27N77W tonight and weaken as it extends from 31N61W to 27N72W Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds are forecast ahead of the front through Fri along with showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will improve Fri night into Sat as the front dissipates. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected through Sun.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Areinhart