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Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front has moved across the Straits of Florida and has entered the NW Caribbean, extending from western Cuba to the central Yucatan Peninsula. Gale-force NW winds continue across the coastal waters near Veracruz, where seas are estimated at 15-16 ft. Elsewhere behind the front, overnight satellite scatterometer data captured fresh to near gale- force northerly winds over much of the basin. Rough to very rough seas of 11 to 14 ft in northerly swell continue across much of the Gulf this morning. Gales are expected to end off of Veracruz around sunrise this morning. However, strong to near- gale northerly winds and rough to very rough seas will prevail this morning, with wind and seas gradually subsiding from NW to SE this afternoon through Tue as high pressure shifts eastward across the northern Gulf coasts. Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft late this evening.

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front continues to move southeastward across the region and currently extends from 31N69W southwestward across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba. Scattered light to moderate convection is noted ahead of the front. Overnight satellite scatterometer data indicated that gale-force NW winds were occurring behind the front off of NE Florida but have since shifted to the NE and are now north of 31N. The front will continue to move SE today with strong to near-gale force NW winds and rapidly building seas expected behind the front through this evening, before winds begin to gradually diminish. Recent satellite altimeter data across the area of gale force winds showed seas of 12 to 15 ft. The front is expected to reach from SE of Bermuda to east-central Cuba this evening, and from 31N61W to the NW coast of the Dominican Republic Tue morning, while weakening. The front will then stall from near 29N55W to the central Dominican Republic early Wed, then drift W and dissipate through Thu. Strong to near- gale NW winds will persist over much of the western Atlantic behind the front until Tue night, with seas remaining in the 12 to 16 ft range. Conditions are expected to gradually improve thereafter.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07.5N12W and continues southwestward to 03N15.5W. The ITCZ extends from 03N15.5W to 02N19W and to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 04.5N between 10W and 48W.

Gulf Of America

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a Gale Warning.

The strong cold front impacting the basin this weekend has moved SE of the Gulf tonight and is now in the NW Caribbean. A few showers remain across the Yucatan Channel. 1037 mb high pressure is across NE Texas and extends a ridge southward across eastern Mexico to the western Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient between this robust ridge and the lower pressures associated with the front continues to drive fresh to near gale- force northerly winds and rough to very rough seas over much of the basin. Seas of 11 to 14 ft in northerly swell cover a good portion of the Gulf this morning, with peak seas of 15-16 ft across the western Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, strong high pressure across eastern Texas and NE Mexico will continue to produce fresh to strong N winds across the entire Gulf basin this morning. Winds are expected to diminish below gale-force near Veracruz after sunrise. Winds and seas will gradually subside from NW to SE today through Tue in the wake of the front, as the high pressure behind the front shifts E-SE across the region, and into the Atlantic by Wed. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop across the NW Gulf Tue night and expand across the SW and central Gulf Wed through Thu, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Thu evening. This next front is expected to begin to stall from the Florida Panhandle to the Mexican coastal waters late Fri.

Caribbean Sea

The cold front extends from western Cuba southwestward across the NW basin and into the Yucatan Peninsula near the Mexico-Belize border. Scattered showers are evident in the Yucatan Channel, ahead of and behind the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate seas in N swell are moving into the Yucatan Channel. The rest of the Caribbean Sea is dominated by the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extending westward to near 70W. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft are occurring in the south-central Caribbean S of 15N. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the north- central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds offshore of Venezuela and Colombia will diminish this morning as high pressure to the north weakens. The strong cold front will continue to move SE and reach from NW Haiti to near the Nicaragua- Costa Rica border by Tue morning, then stall and dissipate from central Dominican Republic to SE Nicaragua Wed. Expect strong N to NE winds and rough to very rough seas behind this front through Tue night. Broad high pressure will develop across the central and western Atlantic Thu and Fri and bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a W Atlantic Gale Warning.

A strong cold front extends from 31N69W southwestward across the NW Bahamas and then across western Cuba and into the NW Caribbean. Scattered light to moderate convection is evident ahead of the front. Gale force winds occurring behind the front offshore of NE Florida earlier tonight have diminished to around 30 kt, leaving strong to near gale-force NW winds and rough to very rough seas of 8 to 16 ft behind the boundary. Fresh to near gale- force SW winds and rough seas are found ahead of the front, especially north of 27N and east of 60W. Please, see the Special Features section for more details.

Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the east and central tropical Atlantic with a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 25N47W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures north of the area support moderate to locally fresh SW-W winds and moderate to rough seas north of 27N and between 60W and 30W. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft in mixed N and E trade wind swell are present south of 20N and west of 30W to the Lesser Antilles. The strongest winds and highest seas are noted off NE South America. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front is expected to reach from SE of Bermuda to east-central Cuba this evening, and from 31N61W to the NW coast of the Dominican Republic Tue morning, while weakening. The front will then stall from near 29N55W to the central Dominican Republic early Wed, then drift W and dissipate through Thu. High pressure will shift into the Atlantic behind the front Tue night through Wed, and develop a broad ridge across the region Thu and Fri.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling