Special Features

Near the Southeastern United States (AL92): Satellite wind data indicate that a weak area of low pressure has formed about 100 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, and is accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for further development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form near the southeastern United States late today or over the weekend if the low remains offshore. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of west- central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. This disturbance has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours and also during the next 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: A tight pressure gradient between a 1035 mb high pressure system north of the Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa will support gale-force NE winds with severe gusts close and between the Canary Islands from 04/18 UTC until at least 05/00 UTC according to Meteo France. Seas will be moderate to rough, peaking around 11 ft. Mariners are also advised that visibility is reduced to moderate or poor due to sand haze.

For more details, please visit the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the southern part of the wave from 08N to 12N and between 18W and 27W.

Another eastern tropical wave is along 35W, south of 19N, moving westward around 15 kt. This wave is surrounded by a very stable and dry environment. Only isolated showers are near its southern part.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are evident in the eastern Caribbean and over Venezuela within 120 nm of the trough axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 19N, moving westward near 15 kt. A few showers are noted in the SW Caribbean near the trough axis.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W and continues west-southwestward to 13N25W and to 06N42W. The ITCZ extends from 06N42W to 05N52W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical waves, no other convection is presently occurring.

Gulf Of America

A complex weather system over the SE United States and divergence aloft is producing a large area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that affects most of the NE Gulf waters. Drier conditions likely associated with Saharan dust dominate the remainder of the basin. At the surface, a weak high pressure system supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and slight seas in the eastern Bay of Campeche. In the rest of the Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and slight to locally moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, surface trough will prevail across the NE Gulf through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along this trough over the waters near Florida. Weak high pressure will then prevail into early next week.

Caribbean Sea

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please see the Tropical Wave section for more details.

The pressure gradient resulting from the combination of central Atlantic high pressure and relatively low pressure in northern Colombia is leading to fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Aside from the convection associated with the passing tropical waves, generally dry conditions are noted over the tropical waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, with the exception of moderate to fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras beginning on Sat night.

Atlantic Ocean

A Gale Warning is in effect for the NE Atlantic. Please see the Special Features section for more details. Two tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic. Please see the Tropical Wave section for more details.

Unsettled weather conditions continue across the waters off NE Florida and the NW Bahamas due to favorable upper level pattern and abundant moisture. The pressure gradient between a low pressure in the SE United States and a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic support fresh to strong southerly winds north of 27N and west of 77W. Moderate seas are evident in the area described. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted off northern Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas. Farther east, a surface trough centered north of Puerto Rico is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 25N and west of 55W. In the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a strong 1034 mb high pressure system in the far NE Atlantic that is forcing fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas east of 40W and north of 19N. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found south of 25N and west of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast west of 55W, disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula eastward to the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean are associated with a weak surface trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend while the system drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, if necessary. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next two days, and also through the next 7 days.

Posted 56 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado