Tropical Waves

A new Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 18W from 04N to 18N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 11N to 13N between 16W and 18W.

A tropical wave was repositioned to along 35W, from 05N to 18N, moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean along 64W, moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean near 832W from 21N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered convection is active from 12N to 14N between 80W and 83W, and from 20N to 22N between 82W and 86W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, then continues to 07N45W. The ITCZ extends from 07N45W to 05N53W. Other than the convection mentioned above in the tropical wave section, no significant convection is evident at this time.

Gulf Of America

1021 mb high pressure is centered over the north-central Gulf near 27N88W. A weak trough is noted over the coast of Veracruz in the far southwest Gulf, and another trough is analyzed across the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is supporting mostly gentle breezes across the Gulf with slight seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure will prevail across the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving through the basin.

A strong Bermuda High and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean continue to generate a tight pressure gradient that is resulting in fresh to strong E winds in the central to SW Caribbean with moderate seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or lighter winds are elsewhere with slight seas.

For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong east winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin.

Scattered thunderstorms are active along a trough over the central and northern Bahamas, reaching to the northeast of the Bahamas to 30N72W. Elsewhere the entire subtropical waters are under the influence of the Bermuda- Azores High, which is supporting moderate or weaker winds eat of 65W, and moderate to fresh ESE winds between 65W and 75W, except locally strong winds north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Seas are slight to moderate across the subtropical waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging extending westward across central Florida will shift southward through Thu, then begin to lift back N afterward. The related gradient will support gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh to strong east to southeast winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Sat and fresh winds Sun and moderate to fresh winds early next week.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen