Special Features

Western Atlantic Significant Swell: Rough seas generated by a storm system centered north of the area will shift eastward across the western and central Atlantic today. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected north of 29N between 68W and 55W through late tonight. The significant swell heights are forecast to gradually lower below 12 ft through the weekend as the swell set shifts eastward.

SW Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is slated to enter the northwestern Gulf tonight, and gale force NW winds will occur behind the front offshore of Veracruz on Sun, and locally very rough seas will be possible near the strongest winds. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas are expected across much of the basin in the wake of the front as it moves southeastward Sun into Mon. Winds will diminish from west to east Mon through Mon night.

Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa near 08N13W and continues to 00N32W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03S43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 03N between 09W and 37W.

Gulf Of America

Please see the Special Features section for information about an upcoming SW Gulf Gale Warning.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered east of the Bahamas. The pressure gradient in the area is leading to mainly moderate S winds with locally fresh winds in the central and west-central Gulf, as seen on recent scatterometer data. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 3 to 5 ft in the central and western Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate S to SE winds will occur across the Gulf of America today, with fresh winds expected south of 25N and west of 85W, as a tight pressure gradient prevails between high pressure east of the Bahamas and strengthening low pressure in the central United States. A cold front is slated to enter the northwestern basin tonight, and fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front as it moves southeastward Sun into Mon. Gale force NW winds will occur behind the front offshore of Veracruz on Sun, and locally very rough seas will be possible near the strongest winds. Winds will diminish from west to east Mon through Mon night. Looking ahead, high pressure will rebuild across the basin early next week.

Caribbean Sea

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are noted across the basin today, as the Caribbean is flanked by a 1012 mb low over northwestern Colombia and a 1019 mb high east of the Bahamas. Fresh SE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras, and fresh to strong NE winds prevail offshore of Colombia. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 7 ft offshore of Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected across the basin this weekend into early next week as high pressure builds north of the area and low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. Pulsing strong E to NE winds will occur each night and morning offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of Venezuela, and locally rough seas will be possible near the strongest winds. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are also expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras into early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front moving through the Gulf of America this weekend is slated to enter the northwestern Caribbean early next week, leading to fresh to locally strong N winds and locally rough seas in its wake.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section above for information on significant swell across portions of the western Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N52W to just north of Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and within 280 NM E of the front, mainly N of 27N. Fresh winds are also noted with this convection. Seas in excess of 8 ft prevail W of the front, mainly N of 20N and between 53W and 72W. To the E, another cold front is analyzed from 31N11W to 23N31W. Fresh to strong N to NW winds and very rough seas cover waters north of the cold front. Elsewhere N of 23N, winds are moderate or less and seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft. To the S of 23N, moderate to fresh trades dominate, with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will occur east of a cold front in the central Atlantic, extending from 31N52W to just north of Puerto Rico, early this morning as a storm system lifts northeastward away from the forecast waters. Rough seas generated by this storm system will shift eastward across the western and central Atlantic through Sat night, before gradually decaying Sun and Mon. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected north of 29N between 68W and 55W through late tonight. Farther west, a strengthening pressure gradient between high pressure east of the Bahamas and a complex low pressure system north of the area will lead to fresh to locally strong SW winds north of 29N between 80W and 60W today. Looking ahead, fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop on Mon off the coast of Florida ahead of a cold front moving through the southeastern United States. The cold front is slated to move off the southeastern coast early next week, leading to widespread strong to near-gale force winds and very rough seas in the wake of the front. Gale force winds will be possible in this region Mon night through Tue.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams