Special Features

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 991 mb complex low pressure is located north of the area near 37N35W. A new cold front is entering the waters from 31N34W to 28N40W to 31N45W with the a dissipating stationary front east of this front extending from 31N27W to 20N39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the stationary front, north of 21N. This pattern continues to support rough to very rough seas across the central Atlantic, with 12 to 15 ft seas noted north of 27N between 30W and 50W. The low pressure will move little over the next couple of days, and will support N swell and seas in excess of 12 ft north of 27N between 25W and 50W into Fri before subsiding into Sat. Looking ahead, farther west, a gale center moving off the U.S. East coast may support additional rough to very rough seas by Sat between the northeast Florida coast and Bermuda.

For more details on the marine conditions, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 08N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 01N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 15W and 40W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A weak cold front continues to push across the Gulf of Mexico, extending from the Straits of Florida off the coast of western Cuba, to near Brownsville, Texas. Gentle to moderate winds mostly prevail across the basin. Seas are mostly 3 to 5 ft, with up to 6 ft near the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near a trough along the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico.

For the forecast, the eastern portion of the weak cold front will move south of the basin today, and the western portion will stall and dissipate. A reinforcing front will enter the northern Gulf late Fri. The eastern portion will move across the eastern Gulf through Sat, while the western half stalls over the northwest Gulf, then lifts north as a warm front Sat night. Fresh to strong S winds and rough seas will follow the warm front over the northwest Gulf into Sun. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Sun night, and exit the southeast Gulf through Mon night followed by fresh to strong winds and rough seas.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered moderate convection is noted off the northern coast of Panama, associated with the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Fresh to strong NE winds are pulsing off Colombia where seas may be reaching 8 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico will move into the northwest Caribbean and stall today, before dissipating Fri. High pressure building north of the area behind the front will support fresh NE winds across the basin late today, with locally strong winds pulsing offshore of Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds and accompanying rough seas will occur across the northwestern and north-central Caribbean on Sat, ahead of another front moving through the western Atlantic and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, the winds and seas will diminish Sun into Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the next cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for details about the significant swell event in the central Atlantic.

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from Bermuda to western Cuba. Ship observations indicated fresh SW winds ahead of the cold front north of 29N, with mostly moderate NW winds following the front, with 5 to 7 ft wave heights. 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 28N55W, supporting gentle breezes between the front to about 50W where stronger winds associated with the low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section. Farther south, moderate and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted across the tropical Atlantic. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere over the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken as it moves eastward today, reaching a position from 31N60W to central Cuba by this evening. The front will stall and dissipate through late Fri, ahead of a reinforcing cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast late Fri. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas will accompany the front mainly north of 26N Fri night, possibly reaching gale force with very rough seas Sat and Sat night south of Bermuda. Winds will briefly diminish Sun in most areas as high pressure builds eastward behind the front as it exits to the east of region. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds will return to the waters off northeast Florida and north of the Bahamas Sun night into Mon ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the coast by late Mon.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen