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New study suggests monarch butterfly population doing OK despite endangered status

Migrating monarch butterfly placed on endangered list last year; some scientists now pushing back on narrative

SAN ANTONIO – The International Union for Conservation of Nature added the migrating monarch butterfly to its “red list” of threatened species and categorized it as endangered in 2022.

The categorization is just two steps away from extinction.

The endangered migratory monarch butterfly is a subspecies of the monarch butterfly Danaus plexippus. The migrating monarch makes its trek annually from Mexico and California in the winter to its summer breeding grounds throughout the US and Canada.

The monarch population, however, has readily declined by 90% in the past two decades, according to federal scientists.

However, a new study suggests otherwise, and some scientists are pushing back against the narrative that the monarch population is dwindling.

Biologists with the College of William and Mary examined 25,000 years of data and DNA from monarchs and milkweeds. They found that the beloved insect may be in less danger than we think.

In summary, these researchers believe the monarch population size is bigger now than it was before humans modified the landscape of North America 200 years ago. The study suggests there is not a recent decline of monarch or milkweed size.

“This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t strive to have more pollinator-friendly habitats for monarchs and beneficial insects,” said Joshua Puzey, a senior author of the study and an associate professor in the William & Mary biology department.

The scientists did point out that the monarch population might not be in decline, but perhaps their migration to Mexico is at risk.

“The decline observed over the past 40 years may reflect a mismatch between the monarch population that overwinters in Mexico and the species’ effective population size. However, the authors reiterate that their study should not directly impact current conservation efforts,” a press release from William & Mary stated.

Dr. Karen Oberhauser, who is not associated with the recent study, is a professor of Entomology at the University of Wisconsin and also the director of the arboretum. Oberhauser has been studying monarchs for 30 years.

In an interview last year with KSAT, Oberhauser echoed the importance to continuing to protect monarchs, not because our ecosystems will collapse without them, but because they are a flagship indicator of how intact our ecosystems are.

Oberhauser said it’s important to remember healthy ecosystems keep humans healthy safe from disease spread and nature decline.

“If things are going badly for monarchs, they’re going badly for a lot of other things,” she said. “So they’re an indicator of how things are going.”

You can do your part about learning how to protect, not just our monarchs, but all pollinators at the 8th Annual Monarch Butterfly and Pollinator Festival. The event will be held from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. at Brackenridge Park on Oct. 7. The festival is free and open to the public.


About the Author
Sarah Acosta headshot

Sarah Acosta is a weekend Good Morning San Antonio anchor and a general assignments reporter at KSAT12. She joined the news team in April 2018 as a morning reporter for GMSA and is a native South Texan.

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