SAN ANTONIO – After a year marked by volatile — and frequently high — mortgage rates, little inventory and affordability issues that sidelined many buyers, the 2024 housing market outlook offers more of the same, albeit with some relief.
Housing economists vary somewhat on their assessments of what’s to come in the for-sale market during the next 12 months, and predicting factors like where mortgage rates will end up can be difficult. Most, however, agree the conditions for housing will improve, even if only slightly, and that’s expected to unlock inventory, moderate home-price appreciation and make transactions easier to achieve.
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In the San Antonio-New Braunfels area, sales growth percentage year-to-year is predicted to decrease just over 10%, according to the Realtors.com 2024 Housing Market Forecast and Predictions. The report also predicts an over 9% decrease in price growth compared year-to-year.
Many prominent homebuilders in San Antonio and New Braunfels saw a significant cut in their production of new homes in 2023. However, home closings surged 37% in 2023 over the previous year’s figure.
The predicted decrease in price growth is good news for those looking for a new home, as there is a plethora of demand for housing in the Alamo City.
Other significant Texas metros, including Austin, Dallas and Houston, are also predicted to have a decrease in price growth and a decrease in sales growth.
Many groups that closely track the real estate industry are predicting a decline in mortgage rates, although not to the level seen during the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic. Redfin Corp., for example, anticipates the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will fall to 6.6% next year, a prediction similar to that of the National Association of Realtors, which predicts an average mortgage rate of 6.3% in 2024. Next year’s rates will close around 6.5%, according to Realtor.com, but most of 2024 is expected to see an average of 6.8%.
Most housing economists say the Federal Reserve’s goal of taming inflation has proven to be successful. That could mean interest-rate cuts by mid-2024.
Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, said recent weeks have seen a sharp drop in mortgage rates, the latest example of the rate volatility that’s been a hallmark of 2023. As the broader economy, specifically around inflation, begins to moderate, that should push mortgage rates downward — although slowly — and rates are likely to move up and down less rapidly than they did this year, Hale said.
In many ways, the mortgage-rate environment for 2024 could be a return to what was normal in pre-pandemic days, albeit at higher rates, Hale added.
Inventory picture may improve
This year saw constrained inventory among existing homes, making whatever inventory did hit the market competitive and, ultimately, keeping prices high in many markets.
The NAR said existing-home sales are projected to be down 18% from last year, the second year in a row in which the existing-home market has seen a double-digit decline in sales from the previous year. Existing-home sales slid 4.1% in October, the latest month available, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million.
About two-thirds of current homeowners have a mortgage rate of 4% of less, Hale said, creating what many have termed the mortgage lock-in effect. With mortgage rates much higher now, it’s become more expensive to purchase a home, prompting many existing owners to stay in place.
Some economists are predicting a shift next year, with an expectation that more owners will put their homes on the market. That should boost existing-home inventory, even if only by a modest amount.
Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, said she believes the mortgage lock-in effect will start to fade next year, especially for people who would’ve preferred to sell their home this year. A life event, such as a marriage, a divorce or a birth, may prompt those households to finally make a move in 2024, she said.
The NAR also is predicting home sales to increase next year, about 13% in the existing-home market and 17% in the new-construction market.
The National Association of Home Builders is forecasting 950,000 single-family housing starts next year. That’s not quite the estimated 1.5 million housing units the association believes is missing in the market, although there also are about 1 million apartments underway nationally right now.
Divounguy said a lot of builders are focused on finishing their current home construction — bringing that to market and selling it. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures builder confidence, has been slipping on a monthly basis since July.
“Builders are cautiously optimistic,” Divounguy said. “We still have population growth, new families moving from abroad, older homes that need to be torn down or fixed up. That all means new construction can’t sit idly by on the sidelines.”
Affordability still expected to be a challenge
If mortgage rates do moderate next year, and more inventory hits the market, does that mean the housing market will become more affordable in 2024?
Yes, albeit not by a significant margin, most housing economists say.
Realtor.com is predicting home prices will decline 1.7% in 2024 after a projected 0.2% growth in 2023 and a whopping 10.3% in 2022. A lack of home-price declines in many markets, paired with a higher mortgage rate, has locked out a significant pool of buyers.
In October, purchasing a typical for-sale home at a 30-year fixed mortgage rate would’ve required 39% of the typical household income, according to Realtor.com. That share is expected to average 36.7% for 2023, much higher than the historical average of 21%.
Because of the more expensive housing market, 40% of first-time homebuyers are making a down payment of 5% or less, according to NAR data.
Still, with a more optimistic mortgage-rate outlook and a greater amount of inventory, combined with strong wage growth in 2023, it’s possible buyers will have an easier time next year.
“It’s not going to completely reverse the trend in affordability — homes are still going to be pretty expensive — but it will be a baby step in the right direction for buyers, to start to bring home prices closer in line to incomes,” Hale said.
Click here to read the full story in the San Antonio Business Journal.
Editor’s note: This story was published through a partnership between KSAT and the San Antonio Business Journal.