SAN ANTONIO – President-elect Donald Trump has promised to launch mass deportations as soon as he takes office. While the policy aims to target undocumented people, one local economist says the effects could ripple across the workforce, particularly in industries that rely on migrant labor.
“Immediately upon taking the oath of office, I will launch the largest deportation program in American history,” Trump said while campaigning in Austin in late October.
“I’ll invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. Did you know that I had to go back that far? We couldn’t find anything because modern day politicians, even sort of old,” he continued. “Nobody had the courage of these original people. So we had to go back to 1798, and it gives you the power to target and dismantle every migrant criminal network operating on American soil.”
Tom Tunstall, an economist and senior research director at the University of Texas at San Antonio’s Institute for Economic Development, said immigration has helped fill essential labor gaps.
“Immigration in the U.S. has been a saving grace in terms of propping up the labor market, particularly for types of positions that are often difficult to fill,” he said.
Tunstall said removing undocumented workers could drive wages higher for remaining workers. However, this could also increase inflation, further straining the economy.
“If we do start seeing the mass deportations, and it correspondingly shrinks the workforce, then unfortunately, it’s going to be another inflationary pressure to have to deal with,” Tunstall said. “Wages would likely go up because of the shortage of workers.”
In addition to immigration enforcement, Trump’s proposed tariffs on more than $3 trillion in imports are intended to curb inflation. But Tunstall cautioned that the combined measures might have the opposite effect.
“The Trump campaign ran on lowering inflation, but a couple of the key measures that they’re talking about — potentially implementing increased tariffs [and] mass deportations — would actually have potentially inflationary impacts and could counteract that,” he said.
Trump’s plans are still proposals and would not be fully implemented until after his inauguration. We still don’t have a concrete version of what effects these mass deportations would have on the economy overall.
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