South Texas congressional races remain the most competitive — but this time Democrats are playing offense

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WASHINGTON — It’s déjà vu in South Texas.

Texas’ two most competitive congressional races will feature rematches from 2022, when Republicans spent millions to make inroads in the majority Hispanic, historically Democratic stronghold. It’s the same cast of candidates facing off against each other as last election cycle in both the 15th and 34th Congressional Districts, but several factors may shake things up this November.

The presidential and U.S. Senate races at the top of the ticket are infusing new zeal that has trickled down into greater resources for Democrats in U.S. House races. Meanwhile, indications of growing GOP support among Hispanic voters in the region continue to fuel Republican hope.

Democrat Michelle Vallejo is making another run for the 15th Congressional District against freshman Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz. The race was the most competitive in Texas last cycle, and Republican leadership viewed De La Cruz’s victory as a watershed moment in GOP outreach to Hispanic voters. De La Cruz is the first Republican ever to represent the district, which runs from Guadalupe County down to the Mexican border near McAllen.

Meanwhile, Republican former U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores will be challenging Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the neighboring 34th District to regain her old seat. Gonzalez unseated Flores in 2022 after he had served three terms in the neighboring 15th district. He switched districts after the 15th district was redrawn to be more favorable to Republicans, making way for De La Cruz’s win. Flores represented the district for a few months in 2022 after it was prematurely vacated by U.S. Rep. Filemon Vela, a Democrat. The district runs from the Mexican border on the Gulf of Mexico to just south of Corpus Christi.

First: Democratic challenger Michelle Vallejo, left, and Republican U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz, R-Edinburg. Last: U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, D-McAllen, left, and former Rep. Mayra Flores. Credit: The Texas Tribune

Democrats on the offense

In 2022, Republicans were on the offense and Democrats were on defense.

It was a midterm election during President Joe Biden’s first years in office — a recipe for Democratic losses. Republicans, meanwhile, were eager to prove they could break new ground among Hispanic voters.

“We had a more difficult political environment in ‘22 and that affected a lot of a lot of folks around the country without regard to their own standing or their own record,” said Cameron County Democratic Party Chair Jared Hockema.

Republicans put up millions behind their three candidates in South Texas that year, branding them the “Triple Threat” or the “Trio Grande.” In addition to De La Cruz and Flores, Republicans were also throwing their support behind Cassy Garcia in her challenge against Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in neighboring Congressional District 28, anchored by Laredo. The three young, conservative Hispanic women were cast as the new faces of representation in the region, which had long been dominated by middle-aged Democratic men.

Nationally, Republicans under-performed that year, despite winning a slim majority in the U.S. House. In Texas, Gonzalez beat Flores by over 8 percentage points. Cuellar trounced Garcia by over 13 percentage points — so much so that Republicans nationally opted against investing in the race this year, even after Cuellar was indicted on bribery, money laundering and working for another government.

First: Republican congressional candidate Cassy Garcia (right) at a GOP event in McAllen on Nov. 6, 2022. Last: U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Laredo, at a GOTV Rally in San Antonio on May 4th, 2022. Credit: Michael Gonzalez and Chris Stokes for The Texas Tribune

De La Cruz was the only Republican of the three who won her race, but Democratic fundraising groups had largely withdrawn from the district that year to protect incumbents. Her district was also slightly more favorable to Republicans, voting for former President Donald Trump by 2.8 percentage points in 2020.

“The RED WAVE did not happen,” Flores wrote after her loss on social media. “Republicans and Independents stayed home. DO NOT COMPLAIN ABOUT THE RESULTS IF YOU DID NOT DO YOUR PART!"

Flores declined to be interviewed for this story.

This year, the tables have turned and Democrats have wind at their backs.

Democrats have an extra boost from the top of the ticket. They have consistently outraised Republicans this year, and Vice President Kamala Harris’ ascension to the top of the Democratic ticket injected fresh enthusiasm and cash.

“Without a doubt, Kamala has brought some excitement in, especially in young women, but also just young people in general,” Gonzalez said, adding that the campaign is fielding hundreds of requests to volunteer and block walk for Democrats. “We never had that type of excitement down here in the Rio Grande Valley in my eight years in Congress.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the party’s organization for U.S. House elections, has outraised its Republican counterpart by over $67 million this cycle as of the end of the August.

That gives Democrats more wiggle room to go all in on South Texas, something it did not have the resources to do last cycle. The DCCC has been backing Vallejo as a part of its competitive Red to Blue program, giving her mentorship and resources through her race. She has moderated her message from last cycle, when she ran on a more overtly progressive platform, and has been more aggressive in attacking De La Cruz.

“People are seeing her for who she is,” Vallejo said of De La Cruz. “Someone who's going to play politics, take orders from the far-right, extreme part of her party.”

When asked if she identifies as a progressive, Vallejo said she was a “fighter for South Texas first and foremost” who was willing to “work with anybody and everybody who is ready to get down to business.” She was noncommittal when asked if she would join the Congressional Progressive Caucus if elected.

The House Majority PAC, a super PAC connected to House Democratic leadership, reserved over $2 million for ads in South Texas. It launched two ads in the region supporting Vallejo in English and Spanish after a poll the group commissioned found her within 3 percentage points behind De La Cruz.

That’s in contrast to last cycle when House Majority PAC pulled its reservations from Vallejo’s race, angering Texas Democrats who felt the state was once again getting overlooked by the bigwigs in Washington. Vallejo lost in 2022 by over 8 percentage points. The DCCC also declined to air any ads for Vallejo that year, though they funded staffing in the district.

This time, DCCC said it is staying faithful to Vallejo.

“Michelle Vallejo is one of our Red to Blue candidates, working hard. Those are all districts that we think we can flip,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said. “So we are working hard in all of those.”

In the 34th district, Gonzalez is also optimistic that he’ll keep his seat. House Majority PAC included him in its ad buy, releasing an ad attacking Flores as an extremist. His seat is considered safer for Democrats, with the district voting for President Joe Biden in 2020 by over 15 percentage points. He also is no longer a new commodity in the 34th district.

“The difference is now the new section of the district that I had never represented before has gotten to know me,” Gonzalez said. “We brought billions of dollars of federal resources to a lot of different projects along district 34. I've built a lot of personal relationships that we didn't have before coming into the district.”

Both Democrats can also benefit from Texas Offense, Texas Democrats’ first coordinated campaign in decades led by Rep. Colin Allred’s Senate run. The initiative allows Democrats up and down the ballot to share resources to maximize efficiency. Allred, whose mother is originally from Brownsville, has campaigned in the Rio Grande Valley with both Vallejo and Gonzalez.

“Texas Offense has invested six figures into our mission of electing South Texas Democrats up and down the ballot,” said Monique Alcala, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party. “We’re in the field, block walking, phone banking and laser focused on connecting with as many voters as possible to secure victory in November.”

Republicans are recruiting

Republicans are far from throwing in the towel. South Texas voters are no longer a reliably blue bloc as Hispanic voters are increasingly voting in Republican primaries and a number of state and local officials have abandoned the Democratic party.

Democrats largely blamed redistricting for costing them the 15th district by including more rural Republican voters. But even within the district’s Hispanic urban core in Hidalgo County, Republicans shrunk their margin of loss against Democrats. While De La Cruz lost the county by over 20 points in 2020, she lost the county by just under 13 points in 2022.

Republicans also assert polling is in their favor. A recent National Republican Congressional Committee-commissioned poll found Flores behind Gonzalez within the margin of error and Trump leading Harris by 9 percentage points in the district, potentially giving Flores an extra boost. Gonzalez dismisses the polls as unreliable, especially when they failed to predict his 8-point victory in 2022.

“We're seeing a trend happening in South Texas, where blue seats that were once solid are now highly at risk,” De La Cruz said. “The future for the Republican Party is in South Texas.”

Despite the national Democratic fundraising groups outraising Republican groups, both Flores and De La Cruz have the cash advantage in their South Texas races. Flores has raised over $4 million this cycle, while Gonzalez has raised over $2 million in that time. De La Cruz raised over $5 million in that time frame, while Vallejo raised over $1.3 million.

Flores has been included in the NRCC’s Young Guns program, Republicans’ response to the Red to Blue program. The NRCC is also backing her with an $800,000 ad reservation, airing an ad accusing Gonzalez of supporting tax-funded gender transition surgeries for minors. Gonzalez denied ever supporting gender transitions for minors.

“Republicans have made really insulting investments in the Latino community,” Gonzalez said. “Their message is just so far out off from the top that I don't think it moves moderate voters in South Texas. I think they've really misread it and they're making a monumental, foolish investment that'll probably lose them seats in other parts of the country.”

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC tied to House Republican leadership, has also reserved over $1.9 million in ads in the Harlingen market, which includes both the 15th and 34th districts, though it has not yet unveiled any ads in South Texas.

Republicans also got new attack fodder when Cuellar after his indictment. Republicans have tried to tie Gonzalez to Cuellar, casting the two as part of an old generation of Democratic lawmakers in a region that has a history of corruption. Republicans have nominally listed Cuellar’s race as a target this cycle too, but have not dedicated nearly the same resources as in Gonzalez’s race.

Gonzalez, who is not involved in Cuellar’s criminal case, dismissed all of the attacks as acts of desperation.

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz is also investing heavily into Hispanic outreach that could help Republicans in the Valley. He put over $4 million in Spanish ads that could also bring out down ballot Republican voters in the region.

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