KIGALI – Rwandans vote Monday in an election that will almost certainly extend the long rule of President Paul Kagame, who is running virtually unopposed after three decades in power in the eastern African nation.
Kagame has been met by crowds of admiring supporters at campaign rallies that evoke the apparent inevitability of his victory as he seeks a fourth term as president. His challengers — Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda and independent candidate Philippe Mpayimana — have struggled to pull crowds to their events.
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Kagame faced the same opponents in 2017, when he took nearly 99% of the vote. Observers say a similar result is expected in a country where serious opposition to Kagame has long been absent.
Kagame, 66, took power as the leader of rebels who took control of Rwanda's government and ended the genocide in 1994. Kagame was Rwanda's vice president and de facto leader from 1994 to 2000, when he first became president. He has since ruled the East African country as an authoritarian who is intolerant of political dissent.
Rwanda’s election takes place amid heightened fears of insecurity in Africa's Great Lakes region. A violent group of rebels known as M23 is fighting Congolese forces in a remote area of eastern Congo. Between 3,000 and 4,000 Rwandan forces are fighting alongside M23, U.N. experts said in a report circulated Wednesday. The U.S. government has described the group as being backed by Rwanda. Rwanda accuses Congo’s military of recruiting fighters who were among the perpetrators of the 1994 genocide.
Campaign rallies close Saturday. Monday's vote is expected to extend Kagame's rule by five years. A total of 9.5 million Rwandans are registered to vote, according to electoral authorities.
Rights groups continue to raise alarm over harsh restrictions on human rights, including freedom of association. Amnesty International expressed concerns in a recent statement over “threats, arbitrary detention, prosecution on trumped-up charges, killings and enforced disappearances” targeting the political opposition in Rwanda.
That statement said the suppression of dissenting voices, including among civic groups and the press, “has a chilling effect and limits the space for debate for people of Rwanda.”
At least two members of the opposition FDU-Inkingi party have disappeared since the 2017 election, in addition to other mysterious deaths and killings, according to Amnesty International.
FDU-Inkingi is the former party of the opposition figure Victoire Ingabire, who is blocked from running because of a previous criminal conviction. Earlier this year a Rwandan court refused her plea for the legal rehabilitation that would have allowed her to run for president. Another of the president's critics, Diane Rwigara of the People Salvation Movement, had her candidacy blocked for allegedly failing to show proof of enough support.
Both Ingabire and Rwigara blame Kagame for stopping their presidential bids.
Human Rights Watch has raised similar concerns about rights violations, urging authorities in a statement last month to ensure that all Rwandans be allowed to express their views and vote freely.
Kagame has long been bullish about his vision for Rwanda, which has registered impressive economic growth in the three decades since the genocide, in which an estimated 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus were slaughtered by extremist Hutus backed by the army.
Rwanda's political system under Kagame is largely built on obedience to authorities, with little room for petty corruption, official incompetence and urban disorder. Organization along ethnic lines is forbidden.
Under those circumstances, critics say, it is impossible to oppose Kagame. The charges of authoritarianism were central to opposition to a recently scrapped scheme by United Kingdom authorities to deport unwanted asylum-seekers to Rwanda.
Kagame, addressing a recent campaign rally, defended the necessity of elections amid criticism that voting was a waste of time when the outcome was so obvious.
"Democracy means to choose what is good for you, what you want and the fact that you are free to make your choice," he said.
Kagame’s supporters say his government has reduced poverty and increased medical insurance coverage for Rwandans, and they cite the transformation of the capital Kigali into a clean city with good roads and stylish buildings.
Many Rwandans also see Kagame's strong presidency as reassuring.
Eric Ndushabandi, a professor of political science at the University of Rwanda, said that while Kagame has critics, "Rwandans believe when Kagame is still in charge, bad political situations of the past that led to genocide cannot repeat."
“To many, Kagame is the guarantor such things never recur,” he said.
The ruling party has ferried supporters from across Rwanda to attend Kagame's rallies. A deadly stampede happened at such a rally in June when some attendees tried to get near the president as he exited the scene.
"Every country has its own best leader of its choice. Right now, it’s only Kagame Rwandans need," said Johnson Bugirinfura, a farmer in the western district of Musanze, where Kagame held his first campaign rally.
One critic of the president from the rural district of Gicumbi in Rwanda's north — a man who gave his name only as Innocent in order to avoid reprisal — told The Associated Press that he wishes to see a change of government after supporting Kagame in previous elections. He pointed out that his home still has no electricity and running water while his children dropped out of school for lack of school fees.
Asked if he would vote for change, he laughed hard and said, “We don’t say that here.”
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Muhumuza contributed from Kampala, Uganda.