BRUSSELS – European Union leaders insisted on Thursday that no decisions can be taken about the future of war-ravaged Ukraine without its consent or behind the backs of its partners in Europe, barely a month before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
Ukraine’s position is precarious more than 1,000 days into the war. Russia continues to make gains on the battlefield, pushing the front line gradually westward despite suffering heavy casualties. Ukraine’s energy network is in tatters and military recruits are hard to find.
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In a show of solidarity at a summit in Brussels with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, many EU leaders repeated a variation of what has become a common mantra — nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, nothing about security in Europe without Europeans.
Trump returns to the White House on Jan. 20 having promised to end the war in Ukraine quickly and talked up his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Many Europeans are concerned that it might result in a poor deal for Ukraine.
The other big worry is that Putin will use any interregnum to rearm and cause more strife.
Rumors are swirling in Europe about possible peace talks in early 2025, and whether European peacekeepers might be needed to enforce any settlement, but the leaders are trying to keep a lid on speculation about what they are prepared to do so as not to tip their hand to Russia.
The priority now, they say, must be to strengthen Ukraine’s hand, should Zelenskyy decide it’s time to negotiate.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said it’s important to “ensure long-term aid to Ukraine -– it must be clear that we are prepared to enable support as long as it is needed.” Air defense, artillery and ammunition are high on the list, he told reporters.
Asked about Trump, Scholz said that his impression from talking to the president-elect “is that good cooperation between Europe and the U.S. is possible.” He said that “the principle is always: no decisions over Ukrainians’ heads, and that of course means over those of the European states.”
Luxembourg Prime Minister Luc Frieden had a similar message.
“We need to stand with Ukraine, and every step … needs to be taken with Ukraine and in the presence of the European Union. The future of Ukraine is decided in Europe and not elsewhere,” he said.
Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof underlined that only Ukraine can determine the conditions for talks, "and it is not for us to talk about that. At the moment, Ukraine has not yet indicated that they are prepared to do so.”
Zelenskyy said Kyiv needs the EU and U.S. to stay united next year, saying that “only together the United States and Europe can stop Putin and save Ukraine.” He said that the only effective security guarantee remains NATO membership.
Asked for details about what options are being discussed with the Europeans, Zelenskyy said he could not comment. “There are no decisions about it. There is some will ... political will, and understanding that Putin is dangerous, and total understanding that he will not stop on Ukraine,” he said.
It’s difficult to predict what Trump might do, and whether history might be a reliable guide.
Under his previous presidency, in 2020, the United States inked a deal on a military withdrawal from Afghanistan directly with the strongest player — the Taliban insurgents — mostly playing down the concerns of the Afghan government and president.
The chaotic exit in 2021, finally ordered by U.S. President Joe Biden, humiliated Washington and its allies in NATO as the Afghan security forces they had trained for years and invested billions in collapsed and the Taliban swept to power.
In Ukraine, the 27-nation EU has provided at least as much support — more than 180 billion euros ($187 billion) since Russia began its full-fledged invasion almost three years ago — as the United States.
But while the world’s biggest trading bloc can probably continue to prop up Ukraine’s ravaged economy, the EU is almost certainly unlikely to be able provide the military backing that the country’s armed forces would require to prevail.
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Raf Casert in Brussels, and Geir Moulson in Berlin, contributed to this report.