It’s officially spring in San Antonio as of 4:24 p.m. on Monday, March 20, when the sun is directly over the equator. In the Northern Hemisphere, the Earth’s axis will continue to tilt toward the sun until the summer solstice, which will occur on June 21 at 9:57 a.m.
For many, the idea of warmer weather — and especially drought-easing spring rains — is something to look forward to.
And although it’s impossible to know specifics about exact temperatures and rainfall amounts, we can tell you that Spring 2023 favors warmer-than-average weather with near-normal rainfall.
LIKELY WARMER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH JUNE
This doesn’t mean that there won’t be a few days of cooler weather, just that there is a high likelihood that South Central Texas will experience warmer weather on average than what we’re used to for April, May, and June.
What’s average? Well, in San Antonio, the average high is 80° in April, 87° in May, and 92° in June.
BUH-BYE LA NIÑA!
After three years in a row of a “La Niña” climate pattern, we’ve finally moved into the neutral phase in between La Niña & El Niño. La Niña typically means drier weather, so three years of La Niña has taken its toll.
This is evident by the fact that San Antonio and South Central Texas have been in some degree of constant drought since January 2022.
Additionally, the water level in our main source of water — the Edwards Aquifer — is low, having dropped 30 feet in just the past year. And with water demand increasing for irrigation during the spring months, there is a serious threat that the aquifer could drop to its lowest levels since 2014.
Now that we’ve seen La Niña end, there’s some hope for our Spring 2023 rainfall outlook.
NEAR-NORMAL RAINFALL THROUGH JUNE
Here’s a look at how much rain we usually see in San Antonio for the months of April, May, and June:
| Month | Rainfall (inches) |
|---|---|
| April | 2.42″ |
| May | 4.40″ |
| June | 3.28″ |
| 3-Month Total | 10.1″ |
So, there you have it: the most we can hope for through June is near-normal rainfall, which is 10 inches of rain.
But, according to data provided by the National Centers for Environmental information, it would still take 18 inches of rain — nearly twice the normal rain — to end the widespread extreme and exceptional drought in San Antonio. There’s only a 5% chance of that happening through June.
So, drought in some form will likely continue through the summer solstice, even through there’s hope for the drought situation to at least improve.
WHAT ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING?
Spring is peak severe-weather season in San Antonio and South Central Texas. We WILL definitely see some sort of severe weather through June, although odds favor more damaging wind reports and fewer hail events this year. Keep in mind, though, that all it takes is ONE storm to create costly damage — regardless of if it’s from wind or hail.
If you’ve been here long enough, you know that our droughts typically end in floods. Remember the Memorial Day floods of 2015, which ended a multi-year drought but caused catastrophic loss of life and property. Watch the video below:
So, while we can’t say for certain, history tells us that - at some point - it is possible that our drought will end with another flooding event. We’ll keep you informed so you can be prepared.
Watch Below: Satellite images released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows the shifting angle of the sun over the past 12 months, from the last spring equinox to now.
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