Another week brings another drought monitor update that still shows ongoing drought across South Central Texas. Thanks in part to a “triple-dip” La Nina stretch, drought conditions have been continuous and persistent across portions of South Central Texas for two years now.
Key points
- Some form of drought has been in place across at least portions of South Central Texas for more than 730 consecutive days.
- As of the latest update, exceptional drought (the most intense form of drought) still covers Bexar County and the Hill Country.
- Every month since August 2021 has been drier than average, except for October 2021 and April 2023.
- While they won’t completely alleviate the drought across South Central Texas, a pattern change and corresponding rain chances are in the forecast next week.
September 2023 vs. September 2021
The last time South Central Texas was completely drought-free was in early September 2021.
Abnormally dry conditions were still found across portions of Val Verde and Maverick counties at this point (shown in yellow), but a generally active spring with periodic rain in the summer was able to chip away at the existing drought found earlier that year.
Here’s a side-by-side comparison of the drought monitor across the state in early September 2023 (left) versus early September 2021 (right). What a difference!
Here’s a closer look at what the latest drought monitor (as of September 5, 2023) looks like across South Central Texas:
While Maverick County and parts of Zavala and Dimmit counties are not currently experiencing any drought or abnormally dry conditions at all, a slight jog to the east shows exceptional drought in place across Bexar County and the Hill Country.
Keep in mind that exceptional drought is the most intense classification of drought, taking into account parameters like precipitation, area reservoir levels, soil moisture, vegetation health, and streamflow.
Rainfall statistics
Every month following August 2021 has been drier than average in San Antonio, with the exceptions of October 2021 and April 2023.
Remember last year, when 2022 rang in as the second driest year on record? Only 11.51 inches of rain were recorded at San Antonio International in all 12 months combined!
Thankfully the spring rains in 2023 brought San Antonio more rain than all of 2022, but this summer has been pretty hot and dry, to say the least.
Any hope for rain?
Looking ahead, isolated rain chances return to the forecast as early as this weekend, with a pattern change and better rain chances looking more likely by the middle of next week (Sept. 12-14)!
While the rain found with these upcoming rain chances won’t completely get rid of the drought, anything helps at this point!
According to NOAA, it would take nine to 12 inches of rain to erase the existing drought across the majority of South Central Texas, and three to six inches across our southwestern counties:
We’ll monitor these upcoming rain chances and get you the latest as we know it. Fingers crossed!
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