Just over a week from the official start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have released their outlook for the upcoming season.
In a press release Thursday morning, NOAA officials stated that there is an 85% chance for an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance for a below-normal season, calling for the following:
- Named Storms: 17 - 25
- Hurricanes: 8 -13
- Major Hurricanes (category 3 or higher): 4 - 7
Atlantic #HurricaneSeason Outlook 2024: 85% likely. Likelihood of 17-25 named storms of which 8-13 could become hurricanes, including 4-7 major hurricanes:https://t.co/Yb8VFbdqX5@NWSCPC #HurricaneOutlook #WeatherReadyNatio pic.twitter.com/ugTih2ecsU
— NOAA (@NOAA) May 23, 2024
Forecasters credit this outlook to near-record warm ocean temperatures, lowered trade winds and less shear in the Atlantic, along with the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific.
La Niña often lowers wind shear in the tropics, and warmer ocean temperatures can lead to additional fuel for storm development.
Officials also predict an above-normal African monsoon, which is responsible for producing waves of energy that come off the coast of Africa that can develop into tropical systems under the right conditions.
This is the second forecast that calls for an above-average season. Officials with Colorado State University released their outlook back in April, calling for the following:
- Named Storms: 23
- Hurricanes: 11
- Major Hurricanes (category 3 or higher) 5
Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU calls for very active season: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes & 5 major hurricanes. Extremely warm tropical Atlantic and likely #LaNina are the primary reasons.https://t.co/hp3sqyA3hC pic.twitter.com/JqpmQcqMjE
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) April 4, 2024
While these forecasts do call for more storms than what is considered ‘normal’, it’s important to note that this doesn’t necessarily mean that an above-average number of storms will make a direct landfall in the United States. However, it only takes one storm to make a significant impact.
Hurricane season officially runs through November 30. You can count on Your Weather Authority to keep you updated over the next several months!
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