KEY POINTS
- Drought continues to quickly worsen across South Central Texas
- It’s been more than 40 days since San Antonio recorded any measurable rainfall
- Minus a stray shower or two, no significant rain chances are in the forecast over the next seven days
- The winter outlook issued by NOAA calls for La Niña to develop later this year, likely leading to drier and warmer-than-average conditions
DROUGHT WORSENS
It’s no secret that we need rain.
On average, October is San Antonio’s third-wettest month in a given year. So far, it has been anything but that.
After a great start to the month of September with 1.46 inches in the official rain gauge, San Antonio has yet to record any measurable rainfall since Sept. 5... that was more than 40 days ago!
The lack of rain and warmer-than-average temperatures stretching well into October have been major contributors to this rapidly intensifying drought.
The latest drought monitor (pictured below) shows these changes:
- Moderate drought (tan) now encompasses our far eastern counties and much of the Coastal Plains
- Severe drought (orange) has now expanded south and east of I-35
- Extreme drought (red) is now in place across northwestern Bexar County and additional parts of the Hill Country
Here’s a look at the rainfall numbers (or lack thereof) in San Antonio, as of Thursday, Oct. 17.
ACROSS THE STATE
On a statewide scale, more than half of Texas (55.1%) is considered to be in a drought. The worst of the drought is currently positioned across far West Texas in the Big Bend region.
LOW WATER LEVELS
The Edwards Aquifer, lakes, reservoirs, and rivers home to South Central Texas continue to feel the effects of this prolonged drought and lack of rainfall. Here’s a look at some of the latest levels:
LOOKING AHEAD
Only minimal (10%-20%) rain chances are in the forecast over the next week, with nothing of major significance to note.
The latest outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center is still calling for a drier-than-average November, followed by more of the same into the upcoming winter season.
Speaking of winter: In the outlook issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), forecasters expect La Niña conditions to develop later this year. This would likely mean a drier and warmer than average winter season for South Central Texas.
This doesn’t mean that we won’t see rain events or a few cold snaps (because we will), but on average, a La Niña pattern typically means drier and warmer conditions for South Central Texas in the winter.
Overall, it is not a good outlook considering our current drought situation. Still, we’ll keep you posted!
- Read more from the meteorologists on the Whatever the Weather page
- Download KSAT's weather app for customized, accurate forecasts in San Antonio, South Texas or wherever you are
- Find the latest forecasts, radar and alerts on the KSAT Weather Authority page