We’re still a week and a half away from Christmas, but many have already asked: “Any wishful chance of a white Christmas this year?”
Sorry to be a Scrooge, but no, San Antonio will not see snow around the holiday this year. In fact, our early take on the Christmas Eve and Christmas Day forecast calls for warm and mild conditions to return by the middle of next week.
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That same thought is outlined in the Climate Prediction Center’s temperature outlook (pictured above) around Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, with much of the lower 48 expected to see warmer-than-average temperatures.
For context, our average high temperature in San Antonio on Christmas Day is 63 degrees, so anything above that would technically be considered “above average.”
However, for now, it’s looking like lows in the 50s or 60s and highs near 70 degrees will be possible around that timeframe. More updates to come as we get closer!
WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS TYPICALLY IN SAN ANTONIO?
A “white Christmas” is defined as 1 inch of snow or more on the ground on Christmas morning. The chance for this to happen in San Antonio is a measly 0.10% — or 1 in 1,000. That’s higher than the lotto, but nothing to get our hopes up for.
To put that in context, a 0.10% chance is the same as rolling a 1 on a hypothetical 1,000-sided die.
For a real-life example, you’d have the same odds of cracking open an egg from the grocery store and finding a double-yoked egg.
So again, it’s not impossible that San Antonio will eventually have a white Christmas, the odds are just very, very low.
HAS THERE EVER BEEN A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN SAN ANTONIO?
A white Christmas has never been recorded in San Antonio. However, in 2004, it was close! Those in Corpus Christi, Victoria and the Rio Grande Valley woke up to a Christmas miracle. A foot of snow fell in Victoria!
Below is a satellite image of snow on the ground from that magical day, courtesy of the National Weather Service.
SAN ANTONIO’S CHRISTMAS WEATHER HISTORY
Reliable weather records for San Antonio Christmases date back to 1885. Temperatures can vary wildly from year to year.
When looking at the 30-year average, the morning low on Christmas Day is near 40 degrees with a high in the low 60s. Christmas tends to be dry.
Even though we’ve never seen snow on Christmas day, it has been plenty cold. San Antonio’s coldest Christmas on record was in 1983 when we had a low of 11 degrees and a high of only 30 degrees. The Alamo City’s second-coldest Christmas was just two years ago in 2022! The low was 22 degrees and the high was 50 degrees.
San Antonio’s warmest Christmas was in 1955 when the high reached 90 degrees. But the third-warmest Christmas was more recent — in 2016 with a high of 80 degrees.
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