Special Features

Meteo-France Gale Warning: Meteo-France forecasts gale-force E to NE winds in Agadir from 16/12 UTC to 17/00 UTC. Rough to very rough seas will likely accompany these winds. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwwmiws.wmo.int.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 05N and east of 15W, and within 150NM of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from 29N83W to 28N88W, and continues as a stationary front to the Texas-Louisiana border near 30N94W. Recent buoy data show moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds north of these fronts in the northeastern Gulf of America. A trough has been analyzed over the Yucatan Peninsula, and fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1023 mb high centered over east-central Mexico extends ridging through the remainder of the basin, supporting gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will occur across the northeastern Gulf of America this morning as a cold front drifts southward. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong NE winds are expected each afternoon and night offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops each day and migrates westward. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE winds will develop by early Thu west of 90W as low pressure strengthens in the central United States. Fresh to locally strong SE winds will expand by Fri through much of the basin, including through the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel, and winds will pulse through early Sun. Locally rough seas will accompany these winds.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough has been analyzed from northern Haiti southwestward through Jamaica and into eastern Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near this boundary in the north- central Caribbean. Elsewhere, a 1006 mb low over northwestern Colombia is supporting strong to locally near-gale force winds offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Recent altimeter satellite data show seas of 8 to 10 ft near and to the west of the strongest winds in the south-central Caribbean. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas in the northwestern basin.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force E winds and rough seas are expected offshore of Colombia each night and morning through this weekend. In the Gulf of Venezuela, pulsing strong winds will occur through this weekend. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail over the Caribbean Sea through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected to develop Thu night into Fri across the northwestern through central Caribbean, including through the Windward passage, as a strengthening pressure gradient develops between the Colombian low and a cold front moving through the western Atlantic. Widespread fresh to strong winds and locally rough seas are anticipated Fri night into early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front has been analyzed from 31N45W southwestward to northern Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the front north of Hispaniola, otherwise, no significant convection is seen along the boundary. Prevailing NW swell behind this front is producing rough seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 26N and east of 58W. Farther west, a cold front extends from 31N77W into central Florida, and recent buoy data indicate moderate to fresh NW winds in the wake of the front. Moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate to locally rough seas are likely ahead of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring along and to the east of this front, generally north of 28.5N.

The remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 high pressure system centered south of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the tropics support moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas across the vast majority of the basin, especially west of 30W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found from 18N to 31N and east of 23W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh SW winds will occur this morning, generally north of 30N between 65W and 75W, as a strong storm system north of the region moves eastward. A cold front associated with this system extending from 31N77W into central Florida will progress southeastward today, leading to moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front this morning. The cold front will drift southeastward into this weekend, and widespread fresh to pulsing strong NE winds and rough seas, north of the Greater Antilles to 26N, are expected Fri into this weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens between this front and building high pressure over the western Atlantic. Elsewhere, rough seas north of 27N and east of 60W will slowly subside this morning. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail south of 20N through this weekend.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams