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Tropical Waves

The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W, from 15N to 05N, moving west at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W, from 15N to 05N, moving westward at 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 54W, from 16N to 05N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 81W, south of 18N to 10N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The tropical wave is interacting with a mid-level trough, which is enhancing convection. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 75W and 83W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 08N18W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm N of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure centered over the NW Atlantic. A surface trough is analyzed from 30N84W to 25N83W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough N of 25N and E of 90W. To the SW, another trough is analyzed from 22N91W to 19N92W. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails across the Bay of Campeche W if the trough and S of 20N. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail over the Gulf waters W of 87W along with 3 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail elsewhere along with slight seas.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region through the week, supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds in the western Gulf. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate to fresh E winds pulsing to fresh to speeds during the evenings through Wed. A trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, on Thu through Fri night accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and building seas.

Caribbean Sea

A strong pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge, a tropical wave with axis along 79W, and T.S. Cristina in the Eastern Pacific, offshore of Nicaragua, supports fresh to strong E to SE winds with moderate seas in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned conditions will likely last through the forecast period. In addition, a trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche perhaps later Thu through Fri night, maintaining a tight pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and mostly moderate seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends from 27N73W to 23N75W. Another trough is analyzed from 31N62W to 27N70W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near and E of second trough mainly W of 57W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered SW of the Azores near 36N34W. Moderate or weaker winds are N of 20N and W of 50W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between 35W and 50W while fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere E of 35W along with rough seas to 10 ft. Across the tropical Atlantic waters, winds are moderate to fresh and seas moderate to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will remain nearly stationary through midweek. A weak cold front will move across the N waters Tue, then move very slowly or stall on Wed, gradually dissipating by Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward north of the area through the end of the week while weakening, with the associated ridge extending toward Florida and southeastern Georgia. The related pressure gradient will generally allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Increasing moisture resulting in unsettled weather conditions is likely to impact the far western section of the basin during the week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era