HURRICANES
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
East-Central Subtropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10 to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.
No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2024, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 10 percent.
Posted 2 weeks ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Berg/Brown
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough extends from 16N17W to 05N26W. The ITCZ continues from 05N26W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 07N between 18W-35W.
Weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the nearshore waters of the northern Gulf. Fresh to strong easterly winds are found off northern Yucatan, while gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail elsewhere west of 86W. Seas in the area described are 3-5 ft. In the rest of the Gulf, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the basin. An inverted trough may develop over the western Gulf early this week where it may linger through at least mid-week. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, pulsing to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.
Caribbean Sea
A weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin, sustaining moderate easterly trade winds over most of the basin. The exception is the Gulf of Honduras, where strong to near gale E-SE winds are currently pulsing. Seas are slight to moderate across the basin, with peak seas to 8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras.
For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to support strong to near gale E to SE winds near the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to locally strong winds in the south-central basin, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere tonight. The pressure gradient will tighten early this week, with fresh to strong trade winds expected in the S-central and in the northwestern Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere. Seas will build next week as a result of the increasing winds. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across some areas of the northwestern Caribbean.
Atlantic Ocean
A weak cold front extends from 31N63W to a 1012 mb low pressure in the NW Bahamas. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 26N63W to 23N68W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 23N and between 53W-63W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted near the front mainly north of 28N and between 58W and 68W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere west of 50W, while moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail east of 50W.
The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad 1031 mb high pressure system centered to the west of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and relatively lower pressures in northwest Africa result in fresh to strong northerly winds north of 15N and east of 22W. Seas in the area described are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will weaken as it reaches from near 31N59W the Central Bahamas by early Mon, then dissipating from near 27N55W to 22N65W by early Tue. High pressure will build in its wake. Fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas are forecast offshore N Florida by Tue ahead of another possible cold front. That front may reach from near 31N76W to 27N80W by early Thu, weakening and stalling from 31N69W to near Fort Pierce, Florida by early Fri.
Posted 1 hour, 28 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era
