Atlantic hurricane forecast released by Colorado St.

Two weather announcements today, both of which are related. Firstly, Colorado State University and Phil Klotzbach have released their annual hurricane forecast.

For the first time in a LONG time (or so it feels), the forecast is calling for a slightly below-normal season, with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The reason for the drop in activity is El Niño. It’s forecast to make a comeback this summer. More on that in a second. Still, Klotzbach also points out that Atlantic waters are still very warm and keep in mind that all it takes is one land-falling hurricane to cause big problems.

Now, to El Niño. NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch. What does that mean? Essentially, they feel confident that El Niño will kick in by summer. In fact, they are putting a number to it: 62% chance of El Niño developing between May-July 2023.

In very simple terms, El Niño refers to a warming of surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean while La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures. We’ve talked extensively before about what this means for South Texas. Hint: El Niño is good news!

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